ME III: ‘Cedar Revolution’ – Or Delusional BushCo Spin ???

NY Times: “Lebanese Rivals, in a Tangled Web of Alliances, Face Off in a Crucial Stage in Elections,” by John Kifner, June 12, 2005.

While perhaps not quite in the league of the brilliant Neil MacFarquahar – who made his mark with brilliant reporting from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Arab world in the months after 9/11 – John Kifner is nevertheless a highly skilled reporter who has, literally, DECADES of experience in Lebanon.

In this piece about the Lebanese elections, he makes clear how little impact the so-called Cedar Revolution has actually made on the political system in Lebanon.

To be sure, the Syrian army is no longer there, even though numerous Syrian intelligence agents surely remain throughout the country. But despite the blathering in right-wing media and pro-Bush blogs about the Cedar Revolution, the fact is that Lebanon remains as structurally divided and unstable as it was before the eruption of the civil war 30 years ago.

Although the Palestinians are no longer the de-stabilizing factor they were at that time, the internal situation remains as difficult as it was then – with the added structural factor that Hezbollah is now considered a “national” force in the country, as a result of the perception it was responsible for Israel’s departure from the South.

Herewith some of the best bits of this important piece that ANYONE interested in Lebanon should check out, since it details clearly how bizarre the political system is in that beautiful but very divided country [bold emphasis mine]:

Lebanese politics, dominated here for decades by neighboring Syria, are always religious and tribal. But this election is developing into a tale of intrigue tangled even by Levantine standards, a quintessentially Lebanese mélange of bloodshed, betrayal and a raven-haired beauty.

Indeed, the campaign is now so convoluted that Gen. Michel Aoun, the anti-Syrian nationalist who returned from 15 years in exile, has allied himself with politicians widely regarded as Syrian vassals.

And in a breathtakingly odd moment the other night, Sheik Hassan Nasrullah, the Hezbollah leader whose Shiite guerrillas drove Israel out of southern Lebanon, exhorted his followers to vote for candidates of the outlawed Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces, invoking the name of its assassinated leader, Bashir Gemayel, who cooperated with the Israelis’ invasion in 1982 and was elected president behind their tanks.

If you didn’t get that paragraph, you should read it again – and again and again, until it makes sense to you.

Only then will you begin to understand the, literally, byzantine intricacies of Lebanese politics – all this cant about “Cedar Revolution” aside …

The [Syrian] withdrawal set the stage for the unlikely coalitions of former civil war enemies. Most of them once cooperated with Syria. Their chances seem good to gain control of Parliament, a development that would almost certainly be followed by an attempt to oust the president, Emil Lahoud, who was hand-picked by Syria. Last September, President Assad had ordered the Lebanese Parliament to amend the Constitution to extend Mr. Lahoud’s term by three years.

Following that ??? If not, you’re not understanding Lebanon …

And if that’s not confusing enough, get this about General Michel Aoun, one of the truly strange characters in this whole strange drama …

General Aoun was able to return after the withdrawal. In Lebanon’s darkest days in 1989 and 1990, with the civil war at its anarchic worst and an impasse over who would become president, General Aoun, who commanded the Lebanese Army, took over the presidential palace and attacked and defeated the main Christian militia, the Lebanese Forces. This period is little known to the outside world because most foreign journalists had left after a wave of kidnapping of foreigners and attention was focused on the brewing 1991 Persian Gulf war, and the United States, assembling an alliance against Iraq, turned a blind eye to Syria’s role in Lebanon in exchange for a token Syrian contingent.

Syria attacked in force, along with remnants of the Lebanese Army and some Christian militias, overwhelming General Aoun. He took refuge in the French Embassy and was eventually spirited off to exile in France, where he became a symbol of resistance to many Christians.

This is where Kifner’s experience in Lebanon really helps put things into context … good thing we have term limits, thanks to Newtie and the Contract on America – after all, who wants people in office who actually have relevant experience ??? What a mistake THAT would be …

At a rally for General Aoun, a Maronite Catholic, in a Christian suburb the other evening, the crowd rhythmically chanted, “General,” booed Mr. Jumblatt’s name and cheered wildly when the general took his place behind a bulletproof shield. While rallies after Mr. Hariri’s death stuck with the red and white of the Lebanese flag, General Aoun’s followers have adopted orange for their banners, T-shirts and scarves.

As his main issue, General Aoun charges the political class with corruption and speaks frequently of “petrodollars,” apparently a reference to the fortune Mr. Hariri – whose son Saad has taken his place as a candidate – amassed in Saudi Arabia. …

General Aoun’s list now includes three major Syrian supporters.

And remember, Aoun is supposedly the ANTI-Syrian candidate …

While I would have included the following section earlier, just to give context BEFORE dealing with the personalities, this material is still VERY important:

In Lebanon’s dizzyingly complicated political system, seats are allocated by religion – the 128-member Parliament is now half Christian and half Muslim – and leading figures can draw up “lists” of supporters to fill the seats in a given district.

Thus, in the previous rounds, all 19 seats in Beirut went to Saad Hariri’s list, and in the south all 23 seats went to an alliance of the Shiite parties Hezbollah and Amal. …

At stake overall in the central mountains and the eastern Bekaa Valley on Sunday are 34 Christian and 24 Muslim seats. A final round of voting in the north will be held next week.

Get the picture ??? If there was such a big Cedar Revolution, how come this bizarre “confessional” system – established by the French as they were leaving at the end of World War II – is still operating ???

Doesn’t seem like much of a revolution to me … let alone particularly “democratic” …