New Iraqi "Government": Bad News for Bush

NY Times: “Iraqi Cabinet Sworn in, but 6 Positions Still Remain Unfilled,” by Robert F. Worth and Richard A. Oppel, Jr., May 4, 2005.

Due to the final intensification of a financial survival issue that has been successfully resolved (Allah be praised), we have not had the time or energy to chart the ups and downs of the new Iraqi Cabinet since it was announced last Thursday, April 28.

In summary, we can say that while the Shiites and Kurds were apparently able to put together at least an initial deal that will make it possible for the secular Kurds and religious Shiites –

the secular Shiites under former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi having apparently been told in no uncertain terms to fuck off, at least for the immediate future –

to co-operate with each other for at least the initial stages of the “new” Iraq,

they were evidently UN-able to structure a deal that could gain even the most minimal legitimation from Sunnis who have, to this point, at least been willing to consider being part of a Shiite- and Kurd-dominated regime.

And even that deal is shaky: the three key ministries of Oil, Electricity and Defense remained unfilled at the time of their swearing in, although their ethnic composition has allegedly been agreed to – with two Shiites and a Sunni respectively.

Frankly, I’m surprised the Kurds didn’t push harder for the Oil Ministry. Their two big positions – President and Foreign Minister – while symbolically important, are not totally positions of domestic power, and, as we have pointed out numerous times, Kirkuk is a KEY issue for them.

But maybe they figure they’re going to control the oil in the north anyway, so it’s unnecessary to upset the Shiites any more than they already have by rejecting Islam as the SOLE source of law and legitimacy in the “new” Iraq.

The problematic thing at the moment, however, is the complete unwillingness of any noticeable Sunni leader to legitimate this round of agreements, as indicated by the painfully evident absence of vice-president Sheikh Gazi al-Yawar.

Which means that things are starting to look a little dicey for Bush and his band of Iraqi adventurers.

If they can’t get a transitional government out of the vaunted election of late January, it’s hard to see how they’re going to be able to write a constitution of any sort –

let alone one that will make it possible for the US to claim “its work is done,” so it can withdraw most of the troops.

And while Tom Friedman MAY be right that the Sunni unwillingness to get involved is a throwback to what he hopes will become known as the “bad old days,” as even he acknowledges, this IS the current reality …

and if that can’t be overcome – and there’s nothing in the Shiite / Kurd deal that seems particularly appealing, both in general and for any Sunni “profile in courage” to take a chance on being seen as a traitor –

then the outlook for a non-civil war in Iraq does not look great.

Now, this doesn’t mean the game in Iraq is definitively lost yet for Bush – but it does mean they are going to have to think about revising the game plan to this point,

because it doesn’t look like it’s going to produce the desired result, whatever that may be.

Unfortunately for the Bushies, their understanding of what is actually going on in Iraq seems as minimal as ever – see the next post for the latest manifestation of this fatal ignorance –

which doesn’t bode well for their being able to come up with a new game plan, let alone articulate it and put it into effect.

So while the adventure is by no means doomed to failure, the current situation is NOT good for Bush … but also, sadly, not so good for the Iraqis either …

Which, of course, raises the point that Bush Sr. mouthpiece Brent Scowcroft raised from the moment the idea of an Iraqi invasion and occupation started being broached:

What ARE the interests of the US in Iraq ??? And are they important enough to warrant all the blood and money that the US is spending there ???

Especially since, as the Joint Chiefs of Staff point out, being tied down in Iraq makes it essentially impossible for the US to even CONSIDER any other military commitment, no matter how minor…

or necessary, in contrast to Iraq, which was unquestionably a war of Bush’s choice …

The latest grim details (bold emphasis mine):

In a striking display of the divisions that have plagued Iraq’s fledgling government, the new cabinet was sworn into office on Tuesday with at least six positions still undecided after days of polarizing negotiations.

In a protest over the stalled talks, Sheik Ghazi al-Yawar, one of two vice presidents, refused to attend the ceremony. He has been leading efforts to name candidates for the Defense Ministry and two other vacant positions allotted to Sunni Arabs and had threatened to boycott the ceremony if Shiite leaders continued to block Sunni nominees to the Defense Ministry, a key post.

On Tuesday Sheik Yawar, the government’s top-ranking Sunni and a member of its three-member presidency council, carried out his threat, and his seat remained conspicuously empty as the other cabinet ministers swore the oath of office with their hands on a Koran.

Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, at a news conference after the ceremony, played down Sheik Yawar's absence, and said the remaining positions would be filled within two or three days. He said names had been agreed on for the Oil and Electricity Ministries and for a deputy prime minister and would be made public on Wednesday.

The persistent failure to fill the cabinet – and the public protest by one of the government’s only Sunni Arabs – was a serious embarrassment for the effort to build a government of national unity. Dr. Jaafari made similar assurances of a speedy finale after the partial cabinet was approved on Thursday.

Instead, Iraq’s first fully and freely elected government remains hobbled by sectarian divisions more than three months after January elections. In recent days, tensions appear to have worsened between the Shiite alliance that dominates the new government and the minority Sunni Arabs. Violence, too, has risen along with the discontent. …

For weeks, Sheik Yawar has led an effort to propose nominees for defense minister, and Shiite leaders have rejected them all, saying they are too closely associated with Mr. Hussein’s Baath Party, [Yawar spokesman Ahmad] Najati said. As a consequence, Sheik Yawar boycotted the ceremony, he said. …

The gaps in the government illustrated once again the stark divisions among Iraqis over how to deal with their Baathist past. Sunni Arabs dominated the upper echelons of the military during Mr. Hussein’s rule, and it is not surprising that Sunni nominees to run Iraq’s Army should be linked to the Baath Party. Yet in recent weeks, as Sheik Yawar and other Sunni leaders have proposed names for the job, they have been shot down by Shiite leaders.

How ARE they going to get out of this ??? It seems almost insoluble …