Key to ‘New’ Iraq – Will Shiites Compromise ???

NY Times: “Many Iraqis Losing Hope That Politics Will Yield Real Change,” by Robert F. Worth, March 17, 2005.

As we have made clear from many recent posts, the key FACT about post-invasion Iraq is the extent to which Iraqi Kurds feel they have both the legitimate right and practical infrastructure to claim political independence.

This is why they have taken such a relatively hard line in their bargaining with the Shiite coalitions who “won” the Iraqi elections at the end of January :

“We are willing to stay in Iraq,” Kurds are saying to the Shiites, “but only if it’s a genuinely NEW Iraq ... one that meets our demands for federalism, control over oil in Kurdish areas, and re-patriation in places like Kirkuk … If it’s going to look or feel anything like Saddam in terms of Kurds being suppressed, then we are perfectly happy to leave Iraq, and let you fight it out with the Sunnis.”

Given this central FACT, the fundamental ISSUE thus confronts the Shiites:

Will they be willing to grant Kurdish demands in order to preserve the territorial integrity of Iraq – which will involve compromise on both issues of interest (oil / federalism) and principle (Islam as SOLE or ONE OF MANY influences) – and thus make post-invasion Iraq the FIRST ARAB country to be governed by a Shiite elite ???

Or will they feel these compromises are too much for them, tell the Kurds to more or less “fuck off,” and take the chance that well-known Turkish – and US – antipathy to Kurdish independence will make such a move impossible regardless of the Kurds’ desires, leaving THEM with no choice but to acquiesce in a Shiite political Islam-dominated Iraq ???

As the Shiite leadership seems to understand, this is the KEY issue in determining Iraq’s future …

and, as befits a community that tries to take a long-term historical perspective, the Iraqi Shiite elite is taking its time in figuring out what its response is going to be …

because they know that whatever choice they make now is going to determine the next SEVERAL phases of Iraq and Middle Eastern history, and have a huge impact on the next phases of Gulf / Arab / Muslim history …

which is why the negotiations with the Kurds over the shape of the next Iraqi government are taking so long …

In this context, the frustration expressed by some Iraqis below, while understandable, is also a measure of political immaturity – again, understandable, but nevertheless a problem if some arrangement is to be achieved that does NOT result in a civil war and the break-up of Iraq …

which is why Bush and his pals should be holding their breath right now … because this is more or less the moment when they will find out if their gamble has worked or not …

If the Shiites compromise and meet the Kurdish demands, thus holding Iraq more or less together, then Bush’s insane gamble may have worked … at least in its first crucial test – much more important than the elections …

But if they tell the Kurds to fuck off, then a civil war in Iraq is INEVITABLE, and Bush will end up going down in history as the most idiotic and destructive American president in the post-World War II era …

As was true in the late 1970s / early 1980s, the political future of the US hinges, to a disturbing degree, on the political maturity of Shiite elites in the Middle East …

The first time around, the immaturity of the Iranians led to a profound rightward shift, from which the US has yet to recover …

This time, paradoxically, a mature response by Iraqi Shiites – one that avoids a civil war with the Kurds – may help consolidate the right-wing domination of American politics for the foreseeable future …

Key selections from this important article by Robert Worth (bold emphasis mine):

[A] sampling of street opinion in two Iraqi cities found a widespread dismay and even anger that the elections have not yet translated into a new government.

The interviews – which included members of Iraq’s major religious and ethnic groups – indicated in particular a striking sense of disillusionment among Shiites, who make up 60 percent of Iraq’s population but were brutally suppressed under the rule of Saddam Hussein. …

Encouraged by their religious leaders, Shiites turned out in extraordinary numbers to vote in January, especially in the more peaceful southern part of country. The United Iraqi Alliance won 140 of the assembly’s 275 seats, a success that prompted joyous street celebrations in Sadr City and other Shiite areas.

But the alliance’s leaders have been locked in difficult negotiations with Kurdish leaders, who have refused to join a governing coalition unless Kurdish property rights are restored in the northern city of Kirkuk and they are allowed to retain their militia, called the pesh merga. The interviews suggested a hardening of the sectarian divisions that were visible in the election.

“All the delays are because of the Kurds,” said Shakur Farhan, a construction worker in Sadr City. “They want federalism, they want oil, they want their power. We want a unified Iraq; the Kurds want their own state.”

Kurds, meanwhile, generally saw themselves as citizens of the separate country of Kurdistan and judged the talks a waste of time. They often faulted their leaders for even trying to join in an Iraqi government. Ala Mahdi, a 24-year-old law student in the northern city of Sulaimaniya, said the stalled talks were pointless.

“I would prefer that Barzani and Talabani come back to Kurdistan and tell everybody we don’t want to be part of Iraq,” said Mr. Mahdi, referring to the leaders of the two major Kurdish political parties, Massoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani. …

Some Shiites said their patience had worn thin.

“We’re fed up with the situation,” said Ahmad Waresh, a barber in Sadr City who, like most in the heavily Shiite area, voted for the United Iraqi Alliance. “It’s been a long time and we’re still waiting for something to change.”

Shiite impatience – while understandable – seems likely to lead to the civil war that some Kurds, at least, appear ready to fight. …

If so, the political fture of Iraq will make the current chaos and bloodshed look mild by comparison. …

So Bush and his buddies better hope the Shiites show some Martin Luther King-like transcendence …

Because if they heed the voices of impatience, Bush’s big gamble is going to REALLY blow up in his face …